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Julian Bray provides: Opinion, comment, forward thinking speculation on conflict zones, terrorist impact, drone (UAV) issues, safety (black boxes, emergencies), airline operations, aviation finance, political implications, and all forms of incident risk. Worked at board level with several airline and aviation groups, including Alitalia, British Island Airways, British Airways, Galileo, British Aerospace, Skyways, former CEO City firm Leadenhall Assoc. Founder CNS City News Service. Director NTN Television News (joint co. with ITV Wales TWW)Included in Debretts People 2017 and in launch edition of PRWeek Black Book.

Direct links to a selection of television and radio contributions can be found at foot of this page. Scroll down.

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Wednesday, 18 January 2017

FOUR EARTHQUAKES ROCK ROME AND FLORENCE, ITALY





Both Rome and Florence have earlier this morning suffered a new round of earthquakes. In all 4 earthquakes have struck Italy, shaking buildings a few months after some 300 people were killed.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) measured the initial quake at magnitude 5.3, placing the epicentre in Central Italy at a depth of six miles (10km).

Residents in Rome said their homes and offices were shaken when the first tremor at around 10.25am local time (9.25am BST) struck.

It was followed 50 minutes later by a stronger 5.7 magnitude quake, when Rome's metro was evacuated AND REMAINS CLOSED, schools called parents to pick up their children. Just 10 minutes later, a third earthquake measuring magnitude 5.3 was experienced.

A geologist explained that Italy's Apennine mountains lie along an active fault line between the Adriatic and Eurasian plates, causing frequent seismic activity. Meanwhile Seismologists say previous quakes have stressed the Laga Fault, which is rupturing.



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GAMBIA: STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED : update update BRITISH HOLIDAYMAKERS EMERGENCY AIR EVACUATION 4,000 TRAVELLERS INVOLVED

Thomas Cook EVACflights update link: https://www.thomascook.com/travel-updates/#intcmp=TopNav_TravelUpdates 


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
BREAKING NEWS NEW GAMBIAN PRESIDENT BARROW TO BE SWORN IN AT 4PM (16:00HRS THURSDAY) AT THE GAMBIAN EMBASSY IN SENEGAL
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


STATE OF EMERGENCY Update:
07:00hrs 19th January 2017
West African leaders have been trying to persuade outgoing President Yahya Jammeh to hand over power to President-elect Mr Barrow, a successful local estate agent and property developer, who according to the BBC reportedly once worked as a security guard at an Argos store in north London. However President Jammeh says he has extended his tenure by three months and challenged the election and is seeking a judicial review, only that it will require Judges from Nigeria and that will not happen any time soon. This legal impasse technically ensures the outgoing President Jemmeh cannot be arrested and charged with alleged multiple counts of corruption and violence over many years.

Local residents and tourists are fleeing the country, with many local services and utilities closing due to lack of technical staff. All roads out of the country are packed with vehicles and people leaving, fearing violence, if the political situation rapidly deteriorates.  


Local sources are now suggesting that President-elect Barrow could meanwhile be appointed President at the Gambian Embassy in Senegal, and thus comply with the protocol that he must be standing on Gambian soil to be sworn in.

The embassy in Senegal is considered to be part of sovereign Gambia.



Meanwhile the emergency air evacuation continues with several countries now attempting to secure the few available take off and landing slots at the airport. UK Thomas Cook [TC] suggest their air evacuation will be completed by Friday. 


in a statement they said: Banjul airport has limited check-in and departure facilities compared to UK airports and operating with a reduced number of local staff [many having fled the country] because of the situation.
Over the next two days [Thurs/Friday] TC will be operating nine extra flights from Banjul airport, in addition to two scheduled flights, to bring home  remaining UK customers.
By the end of Friday 20th January, if all goes well, TC expect to have brought home approximately 3,500 passengers on a total of 16 demewrgewncy abflights.




24:00hrs 18th January 2017
A deadline of midnight tonight has already been lawfully set for president elect Adama Barrow to take over from incumbent President Yahya Jammeh. In any case all President Elect Adama Barrow is required to do is enter Gambia and be sworn in as President - as long as he is physically standing on Gambian soil - he can be sworn in.

The moment that is done, President Barrow can - if he so wishes - call on military force (from West African countries [ECOWAS]mainly drawn from Nigeria and Ghana) to assist.

A Nigerian Presidential spokesman confirmed late this evening a Nigerian Navy warship, Nigerian Air Force military aircraft (2 X Hercules 2
2-4 Military Jets) PLUS Nigerian and Ghanain Army troops are already waiting in neighbouring Senegal. Ready to act under the authority of The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)if the new President Barrow, so desires. They will also evacuate West African nationals as required.

The troops will also safely escort the outgoing President Yahya Jammeh to Nigeria, where he has already been offered sanctuary.

Clearly if the outgoing President decides not to make an issue of it,and departs peacefully, the remaining emergency evacuations of holidaymakers will go ahead. The only problem would be that if hostilities break out the first target or objective for the incoming forces will be the airport.





20:00hrs 18th January 2017
Save the Children tonight warn of impending  widespread humanitarian disaster if fighting breaks out.
http://www.savethechildren.org.uk/2017-01/risk-humanitarian-emergency-gambia-and-senegal-tens-thousands-children-are-displaced


18:00hrs BST 18th January 2017
Thomas Cook Director Paul Hutchinson say the firm is operating evacuation flights over three days the last day being Friday. They have allocate 3,500 seats, package tour customers are being moved first simply as they are easier to locate, but independent travellers (possibly Winter term residents) asked to make themselves known. Details on website.  

17:00 HRS SENEGAL TROOPS ARE MOVING 'IN LARGE NUMBERS' TO THE GAMBIAN BORDER (AGENCIES)

GUESTS INSIDE HOTELS ARE ADVISED TO BE PACKED AND READY TO DEPART AT SHORT NOTICE. DRESS MODESTLY FOR TRANSIT.

Although the resort may still seem to be outwardly relaxed and in holiday mode, conditions can rapidly change. 

Scope out emergency instruction card for your hotel and room (ON BACK OF DOOR), mentally note where emergency exits/stairs are, and what can be used to shore up door/exit. 

Try to stay relaxed but fully aware.

Keep taking any medications on schedule as usual, ensure pills are in original chemists package, not loose, in case of checkpoint search. 

Cut back on alcohol, stay hydrated on bottled water (not tapwater). Ensure you have a quantity of low denomination notes.

During any State of Emergency. Do not identify your name and/or location on external social media feeds, such as facebook, snapchat, twitter etc., Do not publicly be critical, or comment on local politics, conditions, exercise extreme discretion. 

Listen to, and watch, BBC World ( Locally www.bbc.com ) and BBC WORLD Radio, do not rely on local media for current information and advice, as they may be working under duress. 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/exceptional-assistance-measures-for-british-victims-of-terrorist-incidents-abroad 

Dump any surplus luggage, aim for carry-on hand luggage only. Conditions may quickly change at the airport if Emergency situation deteriorates. 

Stay close to your party, at all times. Do not relax your own guard, until aircraft is out of Gambian controlled air space.

FOLLOW THE SECURITY SUGGESTIONS BELOW.

Ensure your contact numbers are known to your local holiday reps. and any new back up staff who have now arrived from the UK, and operating between the airport and hotel resort complexes.

Do not expect frequent (or any) updates as currently 3,000 people are involved in the evacuation, first tranche being flown out on five flights today, and more flights tomorrow - if overnight situation holds. Be ready to move quickly. 

Make certain all members of your party are fully aware of any new developments.

Local sources are strongly suggesting that 'military operations' will be taking place after nightfall tonight. Political deadline is midnight Wednesday/Thursday.

______________________________________

+++ GAMBIA STATE OF EMERGENCY ALL UK HOLIDAYMAKERS ADVISED TO LEAVE IMMEDIATELY +++


THOMAS COOK [TC] are dispatching a special assistance team with their first evacuation  flight from the UK, to provide additional support at Banjul airport for their customers.  Within  Gambia, local staff will proactively contact all TC customers on holiday as soon as possible to prepare for return to the UK.


Those UK customers due to fly to the Gambia in the coming days will no longer be able to travel until FCO advice changes.

If your travel plans are affected, please contact

THOMAS COOK directly on 01733 224 536.

1

Julian Bray Aviation Expert comments: Late last night (January17 2017) the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office changed its travel advisory for British travellers and holidaymakers for Gambia suggesting that only essential travel to Gambia by British citizens and that all others should immediately leave. As a result a major air evacuation starts this morning (Wednesday) led by Thomas Cook airlines who are sending in empty aircraft from Manchester, Gatwick and Las Palmas to emergency evacuate their 985 holidaymakers and nearly 3,000 other UK passport holders in the Gambia.

ESSENTIAL SECURITY ADVICE from Julian Bray

A State of Emergency has been declared as a result the UK Government last night (Tuesday) changed its travel advice, as a result for your safety ALL future holidays to the West African Gambia have been cancelled, insurance bonding has also been activated.

Holidaymakers and travellers inside GAMBIA are strongly advised to urgently contact their holiday company, but do not travel independently to the airport, unless advised to do so. Independent travel inside Gambia may now also be unsafe or simply difficult.

Stay off the streets, stay inside your hotel and away from windows. Be fully aware of your surroundings. Snipers, gunmen and individuals with 'pangas' (large sharp knives) may be operating.

Recover passports, medicines and all travel documents from hotel safes, and rooms. Keep documents safely with you at all times.


YOUR HOLIDAY IS OVER. Be ready for a full emergency evacuation, at a moments notice. Do not consume alcohol, drink water ie stay hydrated and have bottled water handy, you may have to urgently react and think quickly - alcohol really doesn't help!

Ensure mobile phones are fully charged, have credit, and each member of your party has access to one and know all numbers.  Keep none essential calls to a minimum. 

UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES take pictures of military / police vehicles, mobs, groups, troops or checkpoints. Co-operate if challenged at checkpoints. Pack only essential clothing, discard whatever you can, as you may have to carry your own cases.

Be prepared to depart at a moments notice.  Have your cases ready, you may at the last minute be required to dump or leave behind some of your luggage. Remember under State of Emergency conditions nothing is ever guaranteed or totally safe. Fully assist and co-operate with those who are trying to get you safely home.

____________________________

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Tuesday, 17 January 2017

MALAYSIA AIRLINES MH370: THREE YEAR SEARCH FINALLY COMES TO AN END WITH LITTLE TO SHOW FOR $160million

The search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has officially ended with no concrete clue as to the plane's whereabouts, authorities announced on Tuesday. 



“Today the last search vessel has left the underwater search area. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has not been located in the 120,000 square-kilometre underwater search area in the southern Indian Ocean. Despite every effort using the best science available, cutting edge technology, as well as modelling and advice from highly skilled professionals who are the best in their field, unfortunately, the search has not been able to locate the aircraft." stated the MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué, co-signed by the transport ministers of Malaysia, China and Australia.

Flight MH370 was reported went missing on March 8 2014, with 239 people on board enroute from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Authorities said at the time, the plane may have crashed in a remote part of the southern Indian Ocean. However, no plane debris was ever found in the search zone.

After the announcement, the relatives of those on board the jet expressed their anger over the suspension of the search, urging the search teams to extend the search to a new area.

"First Principles Review Report released on 20th December 2016 by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) recommended a new search area of 25,000 square kilometres (9,650 square miles) north of the present one,"

The Voice370, a group formed by the families of MH370 passengers, commented: "In our view, extending the search to the new area defined by the experts is an inescapable duty owed to the flying public in the interest of aviation safety."


It added, in news release : "Commercial Planes cannot just be allowed to disappear without a trace. Having already searched 120,000 square kilometres (46,000 square miles), stopping at this stage is nothing short of irresponsible, and betrays a shocking lack of faith in the data, tools and recommendations of an array of official experts assembled by the authorities themselves."



JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aerospace & Incident Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com

FAA and Skypan International, Inc., Reach Agreement on Unmanned Aircraft Enforcement Cases

FAA logo






FAA and Skypan International, Inc., Reach Agreement on Unmanned Aircraft Enforcement Cases

 
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration today announced a comprehensive settlement agreement with SkyPan International, Inc., of Chicago. The agreement resolves enforcement cases that alleged the company operated unmanned aircraft (UAS) in congested airspace over New York City and Chicago, and violated airspace regulations and aircraft operating rules. 
 
Under the terms of the agreement, SkyPan will pay a $200,000 civil penalty. The company also agrees to pay an additional $150,000 if it violates Federal Aviation Regulations in the next year, and $150,000 more if it fails to comply with the terms of the settlement agreement. 
 
SkyPan also agrees to work with the FAA to release three public service announcements in the next 12 months to support the FAA’s public outreach campaigns that encourage drone operators to learn and comply with UAS regulations. 
 
The agreement settles enforcement cases involving a $1.9 million civil penalty that the FAA proposed against SkyPan International, Inc. of Chicago in October 2015. It is the largest civil penalty the agency has proposed against a UAS operator.
 
 
                                               


JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aerospace & Incident Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com

Prime Minister Theresa May sets out the 12 negotiating priorities for Brexit as part of the Plan for Britain after leaving the EU.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May sets out the 12 negotiating priorities for Brexit, as part of the Plan for Britain after leaving the EU.






https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech


Julian Bray comments: Rather than take apart the 'May hard brexit speech' at this early stage, suffice to say that at last, we have the start of a rough framework to work with, and flesh out.

Why Mrs May has waited so long to deliver this, no one is really certain. Its not that radical, just that 'out' means 'out' and we need to control our borders. Could it be that she wanted a curtain raiser for Davos?  Possibly more importantly to effectively jump in before President Trump monopolises the media? What we have to realise is that we do not have teams of experienced negotiators, versed in constructing a multiplicity of trade agreements and protocols. So perhaps this has been recognised and the options simplified? Parliament will have a final vote, before it becomes law. Labour response so far to the speech, has been muted suggesting that Mrs May has stolen their thunder over the four freedoms.

It is also interesting to note that Northern Irelands Stormont is in meltdown, and a snap election has been called. To my mind that situation outweighs everything else, and hopefully a new administration will be quickly sworn in and the 'peace' continued.

No one wants to go back to the 'troubles'. Northern Ireland has held onto an uneasy truce, opposing sides have worked together and really tried to make it work.


JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aerospace & Incident Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com

Aviation Alerts & incidents: Jan 15 2017 Dropped wheel on landing; Engine shut-down; Tyres burst; Pax & crew overcome by fumes

Comair B734 at Johannesburg on Dec 6th 2016, dropped wheel on landing
A Comair Boeing 737-400, registration ZS-OAP performing flight MN-6282/BA-6282 from Victoria Falls (Zimbabwe) to Johannesburg (South Africa), landed on Johannesburg's runway 03R but dropped the #3 (inboard right hand) main wheel on landing. The...
Read full story »




Europa A332 near Bridgetown on Jan 15th 2017, engine shut down in flight
An Air Europa Airbus A330-200, registration EC-JQQ performing flight UX-75 from Madrid,SP (Spain) to Lima (Peru), was enroute at FL360 over the Atlantic Ocean when the crew needed to shut the left hand engine (CF6). The aircraft drifted down to...
Read full story »




Sunstate DH8D at Sydney on Jan 15th 2017, burst both left main tyres on landing
A Sunstate Airlines de Havilland Dash 8-400 on behalf of Qantas, registration VH-QOV performing flight QF-2123 from Toowoomba,QL to Sydney,NS (Australia), landed on Sydney's runway 16L but blew both left hand main tyres, rolled out without further...
Read full story »




Germanwings A319 near Stuttgart and Krakow on Oct 15th 2016, fumes injure passenger and 2 cabin crew
A Germanwings Airbus A319-100, registration D-AKNK performing flight 4U-2734 from Stuttgart (Germany) to Krakow (Poland), was climbing out of Stuttgart when a strong odour of smelly fish and old socks became noticeable in the forward section of the...
Read full story »



Germanwings A320 at Amsterdam and Stuttgart on Jan 12th 2017, fumes on board
A Germanwings Airbus A320-200, registration D-AIQH performing flight 4U-2181 from Amsterdam (Netherlands) to Stuttgart (Germany) with 64 passengers and 6 crew, was taxiing for departure when a light nasty odour was noticed throughout the aircraft....
Read full story »






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Monday, 16 January 2017

Turkish Airlines cargo Boeing 747jet crash kills 37 in Kyrgyzstan. Death toll expected to rise as residential neighbourhood involved.

+++ Breaking News +++ This is a developing story, subject to updates +++




A Turkish Airlines cargo plane has crashed into a residential area just outside Kyrgyzstan's main international airport, killing at least 37 people. Death toll is likely to rise
UPDATE: Monday 16 Jan 2017  The Turkish Airlines Cargo Boeing 747 crashed just outside Manas airport, south of the capital Bishkek, on Monday morning, killing people in the residential area adjacent to the airport as well as those on the plane, the Emergency Situations Ministry said.
Reports of the death toll on Monday ranged from 37 people, according to emergency officials, to 31 people, according to the presidential press office, which said rescue teams have recovered 31 bodies as well as human remains from nine bodies.

Images from the scene showed the nose of the plane embedded inside a brick house.

More than 1,000 rescue workers were at the incident location by late morning in the residential area where 15 houses have been destroyed, Deputy Prime Minister Mukhammetkaly Abulgaziyev said.

The cause of the crash was not immediately clear.

Kyrgyz Emergency Situations Minister Kubatbek Boronov told reporters that it was foggy at Manas on Monday morning when the plane came down but weather conditions were not critical.


Until 2014, the US military operated an installation at Manas airport, using it primarily for its operations in Afghanistan.
Turkish media reports said the plane belonged to an Istanbul-based cargo company and it had departed from Hong Kong.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called his Kyrgyz counterpart, Erlan Abdildaev, on Monday to offer Turkey's condolences, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

Source AP , CNS,




Sunday 15 Jan2017   BISHKEK: A Turkish Airlines cargo B 747 jet crashed near Kyrgyzstan's Manas airport on Monday, killing at least 16 people, the Kyrgyz government said.



Rescue workers have recovered the body of one pilot and 15 local people whose houses were in the Boeing 747 jet's crash area, the healthcare ministry said.

Source: Reuters





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