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http://www.freelancedirectory.org/?name=Julian.Bray.aviation.comment

Julian Bray provides: Opinion, comment, forward thinking speculation on Travel, Cruise & Aviation: conflict zones, terrorist impact, drone (UAV) issues, safety (black boxes, emergencies), airline operations, aviation finance, political implications, and all forms of incident risk. Worked at board level with several airline and aviation groups, including Alitalia, British Island Airways, British Airways, Galileo , British Aerospace, Skyways, former CEO City firm Leadenhall Assoc. Founder CNS City News Service. Director NTN Television News (joint co. with ITV Wales TWW) Debretts People 2017 and in launch edition of PRWeek Black Book.

Direct links to a selection of television and radio contributions can be found at foot of this page. Scroll down.

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Tuesday, 11 November 2014

NO EXTRA RUNWAYS ARE NEEDED IF CARGO DECAMPS FROM HEATHROW - says Aviation Expert

 

 
London Luton/Stansted (above)/Southend could mop up London Air Cargo,
and negate need for new runways..says Julian Bray
 
Julian Bray Aviation Expert  writes: A truly shocking report, which misses a key point on increasing aviation security aspects of air cargo and logistics, has today poured water on all the work put in by airport owner/operators at London Heathrow and London Gatwick Airports to make a case for a third runway, at their respective major international airports, and represents a black week for the aviation industry in general.
 
Having earlier lost a Supreme Court direction over delayed flight cash penalties to be paid by EC airlines, to delayed passengers - which will see some budget airlines in 2015 go out of business -  and for others the prospect of significant air fare increases; Sir Howard Davies in his report claims, the cost of a controversial extra runway at either Heathrow or Gatwick will cost billions of pounds more than the airport owners have cost modelled or predicted..
 
But the figures are hotly disputed, as a 20 per cent buffer has been added to all the component costs by the report writers, on the basis that 'public projects are always under budgeted.'
 
Heathrow Airport  said their preferred plan for a third runway was costed at approximately £15.6 billion. This also included road infrastructure whilst Gatwick said a second runway would cost £7.4 billion.
 
In his justification for arbitrarily adding the 20% uplift in costs Sir Howard Davies who chaired the Government's Airports Commission claimed the true cost of Heathrow would be some £3 billion more and Gatwick would cost an extra £2 billion, this is the justification for the 20% hike in the estimates.
 
Alarmingly the report does not properly address the 'elephant in the room' including rocketing costs associated with aviation security, the complicating factor of Air Cargo/Freight and Private Aviation located at London Heathrow. 
 
Clearly, if all cargo operations were moved out of London Heathrow and relocated to other regional airports, and private aviation substantially surcharged for using Hearthrow, they would soon decamp to less expensive but well serviced airports such as Stansted, Southend, Luton, Redhill and many other smaller landing strips even RAF Northolt.
 
The removal of air freight operations from Heathrow would reduce substantial road congestion around London Heathrow, but importantly there would be no need for additional airport runways and the cost of cargo transits would be substantially reduced.

For the first time air freight operations could be fully integrated with  road/rail frieht interchanges and container/ freeports in a truly seemless 'just-in-time' operation.
 
As an example of how complex the system is, its generally not realised that UK firms sending airfreight via the Italian carrier Alitalia would see some of their air freight/carg shipments sent from the Heathrow air cargo sheds FIRST BY ROAD  to Rome for onward air transmission.
 
Clearly in 2014 there is little reason to have the extensive volumes of cargo being delivered directly into Central London, as manufacturing and service industries have substantially moved out Greater London to other cheaper areas. Clearly cargo handling should be targeted on Freight handling hubs such as the London Gateway and associated rail operations where air and sea/road freight containers can be quickly cascaded throughout the UK and Europe.
 
To be fair cargo operations are almost outside of the scope of the Davies Report, but in reality considering a Falcon executive Jet requires a runway slot on equal terms to that of a fully loaded Dreamliner or a DHL freight jet aircraft, It has to be a central traffic factor. 

So the simplistic 'Bray' plan would see freight and air cargo operations fully cascaded to regional airports and only a substantial premium but much reduced cargo service operated directly out of London Heathrow. As for Boris Island? Sunk without trace... one bird that'll not fly ...   
 

JULIAN BRAY 01733 345581, Journalist, Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Operations, Travel / Cruise Industry Expert, EQUITY, NUJ, Broadcast ISDN 01733 345020 SKYPE: JULIAN.BRAY.UK e&oe > Updates are on the Website
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"Adept at holding national and international politicians and business people to account, has a 'Marmite' but considered approach to politics and always well prepared" Iain Wilson

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TELEVSION AND RADIO LIVE INTERVIEWS AND CONTRIBUTIONS

RECENT FEEDS:

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http://www.pri.org/stories/2012-01-16/why-modern-navigational-technology-didnt-prevent-costa-concordia-accident

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https://www.rt.com/op-edge/323287-su24-fighter-russia-turkey-syria/ Scroll down final VT

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https://audioboom.com/boos/3933313-julianbray-talks-on-the-airport-expansion-delay-the-heathrow-bid-is-frankly-illegal

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http://www.cbc.ca/i/caffeine/syndicate/?mediaId=2685621754 AIR DUBAI CRASH MARCH 2016 Television 2-way with CBC Canada via 'upmarket' SKYPE

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/video/plane-circled-airport-bad-weather-110053170.html AIR DUBAI CRASH 19/03/2016 Julian Bray first reaction

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Julian Bray Broadcaster Radio Podcasts Selection