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Julian Bray provides: Opinion, comment, forward thinking speculation on Travel, Cruise & Aviation: conflict zones, terrorist impact, drone (UAV) issues, safety (black boxes, emergencies), airline operations, aviation finance, political implications, and all forms of incident risk. Worked at board level with several airline and aviation groups, including Alitalia, British Island Airways, British Airways, Galileo , British Aerospace, Skyways, former CEO City firm Leadenhall Assoc. Founder CNS City News Service. Director NTN Television News (joint co. with ITV Wales TWW) Debretts People 2017 and in launch edition of PRWeek Black Book.

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Monday, 27 June 2016

Chancellor George Osborne to do nothing until OCTOBER and gives no comfort to holidaymakers as hotels refuse English and Scottish banknotes



BREAKING NEWS: BBC NEWS is reporting: Deputy Labour leader Tom Watson, who dashed back from a muddy Glastonbury festival tells Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn to resign, after spate of UK shadow cabinet resignations, as there will be a leadership challenge.




Julian Bray Aviation Operations & Finance Expert writes: Arriving 15 minutes late for a 7am start at the UK Treasury on Monday morning, Chancellor George Osborne has effectively thrown UK travellers and ex-pats living and working abroad to the mercy of international money-dealing, ruling out a promised 'immediate emergency budget' and without a clear steer from politicians, now embroiled in two leadership elections


 


http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/guidofawkes/~3/REVM3rgbK88/
Graphic courtesy of Guido Fawkes http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/guidofawkes/~3/REVM3rgbK88/



By 09:30am approximately half the shadow cabinet members had resigned and the embattled Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn had issued replacement names in a reshuffle.


The clear message is do not rely on Sterling (UK£) as a stable holiday currency. At 08:15am this morning (Monday) the pound against the US dollar was down 1.53% trading at £1:35 to US$ 1.00.


The one bright point is that bookmakers backed the wrong horse (remain) and substantially paid out, the City seems to have blindly followed their lead and in the process totally unprepared for a 'leave' vote victory.


Many hedgefund managers also backing the 'remain' position suffered as well, some may well say this is a bonus! 


Although restating  'it will not be plain sailing in the days ahead', not a single word of his presentation aimed at City traders covered or even touched on the overnight downward slide of the UK Pound against major currencies.


After exchange rate commissions, holidaymakers and travellers will currently be left with little more than £1:10 to the US dollar as the currency struggles to find its own level.


The Euro is also taking a pasting, as no one expected David Cameron to throw in the towel so quickly, then in the same breath, Mr Cameron imposed a three month sterile period of inactivity "until a 'new Prime Minister' is elected" AND THEN the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) makes a formal assessment of the Economy in the Autumn and after the Tory Party Conference!




The key is the triggering of Article 50 to start the two year process of leaving the EU.  Once triggered the process - dubbed a withering asset - cannot be easily undone, although Germany appears to be holding the door slightly ajar.... 


Legally the UK remains a full EC member during this process and will still have to pay in. However human nature being what it is, our European political cousins may take a different, immediate, possibly self-centred view in dealing with the UK and British holidaymakers.


(We discussed the exit process at length, click this link: http://julianbrayrecessionbuster07944217476.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/why-david-cameron-has-quit.html )


Over the weekend many international hotel chains have refused to accept sterling banknotes (as 'Central Banks have not set a rate for this currency') offered by holidaymakers and travellers.  Leaving their guests stranded, and out of immediate funds. Some ATM's are however still functioning.


Anyone setting foot outside the UK is strongly advised to stock up on US dollars and to ensure credit cards have the maximum credit available, and not to rely on Sterling, and to ensure any local purchase is calculated in US dollars.


Financial uncertainty will remain until a new Prime Minister is elected and that would be before the Conservative Party Conference after the main holiday season is over.








JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aviation & Crisis Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com
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