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Julian Bray provides: Opinion, comment, forward thinking speculation on Travel, Cruise & Aviation: conflict zones, terrorist impact, drone (UAV) issues, safety (black boxes, emergencies), airline operations, aviation finance, political implications, and all forms of incident risk. Worked at board level with several airline and aviation groups, including Alitalia, British Island Airways, British Airways, Galileo , British Aerospace, Skyways, former CEO City firm Leadenhall Assoc. Founder CNS City News Service. Director NTN Television News (joint co. with ITV Wales TWW) Debretts People 2017 and in launch edition of PRWeek Black Book.

Direct links to a selection of television and radio contributions can be found at foot of this page. Scroll down.

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Friday, 24 June 2016

UK INDEPENDENCE DAY JUNE 23 JUNE 2016, OVER 17 MILLION VOTE TO QUIT EUROPE (17,410,742)

Strike up the Band, but repair our UK defences first... 

Julian Bray writes: OVER 72% of the British voting population ( 17,410,742 ) has endorsed the axing of  its 40+ year membership of the EU / European Commission. The UK has voted: 51.9% to leave the EU (48.1% to remain), and as the exit campaign put it 'to take back control'  - and to be fair we have always thought Camerons departure was firmly on the cards, say within a few weeks certainly not hours - as the increasing references to family, holidays and his private life have been a feature of David Camerons speeches recently, and returning from his failed mission to win any significant concessions from European leaders. 

So the British Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned,  this is part of his resignation speech.....

David Cameron: "I held nothing back, I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union and I made clear the referendum was about this and this alone - not the future of any single politician including myself.

"But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.

"I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

"This is not a decision I've taken lightly but I do believe it's in the national interest to have a period of stability and then the new leadership required.

"There is no need for a precise timetable today but in my view we should aim to have a new prime minister in place by the start of the Conservative Party conference in October.

"Delivering stability will be important and I will continue in post as Prime Minister with my Cabinet for the next three months.

"The Cabinet will meet on Monday, the Governor of the Bank of England is making a statement about the steps that the Bank and the Treasury are taking to reassure financial markets.

"We will also continue taking forward the important legislation that we set before Parliament in the Queen's Speech.

"And I have spoken to Her Majesty the Queen this morning to advise her of the steps that I am taking.

"A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister and I think it's right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger Article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU.

"I will attend the European Council next week to explain the decision the British people have taken...."   Best of luck with that Mr Cameron!

The immediate reaction by the City was interesting last night they clearly backed the wrong horse, the pound soared to £1:50/US$1 but immediately it became clear from early morning television the pound fell off a cliff. 

Sterling however recovered half of it losses  following a robust TV speech directly to camera by the Governor of the Bank of England committing immediately, wait for it.....  £250Billion of reserves to support liquidity and counter volatility in the City over the next few weeks.

To set the EU withdrawal  process in train Article 50 has to be invoked but David Cameron says he'll not be doing it, so it will be at least 3 months until a new prime minister is appointed by the Conservative Party (Boris Johnson MP would seem to be in pole position) or they could opt for a snap General Election!

Meanwhile EU/EC leaders says Article 50 has to be invoked, and quickly to prevent 'contagion.' What is also clear is that few of the leaders have a 'Plan B' to put into operation. Few inside Brussels expected the UK would leave

But this also calls into question the quality of the current Labour Party leadership after Mr Corbyns seemingly lack lustre approach to the campaigning over the last month and his earlier rocky start to his term in office.  

STOP PRESS: The BBC reports Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey have tabled a no confidence motion in Jeremy Corbyn, which could be voted on Tuesday night.

The PLP might be able to topple him but how will they win round the membership?

The problem with Blairites organising a putsch against Jez is they were the ones out of touch with […] The post Corbyn No Confidence Motion Tabled appeared first on Guido Fawkes
WWW.order-order.com  

So how does this affect travel and aviation? As much of the business is conducted in US dollars, linking Sterling to the Dollar might be an option, in the short term everyone will suffer as exchange rates encounter wide swings.

The British holidaymaker will immediately notice a marked change in spending power as holiday money rates are effectively surcharged on City rates so, expect a sharp drop in US holidays, a cut back on US Cruise ships (the onboard hotel and retail trade and gratuities are all negotiated in greenbacks!)  Possibly extra Visa and entry restrictions in mainland Europe, Canaries, and as for Gibraltar, expect Spain to rattle a few sabres... We live in interesting times. Tin Hats all round...

JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aviation & Crisis Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com
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"Adept at holding national and international politicians and business people to account, has a 'Marmite' but considered approach to politics and always well prepared" Iain Wilson

Julian Bray broadcasts and comments via ISDN +44 (0)1733 345020 (GLENSOUND C5 Dual Codec), VoIP and SKYPE >>> JULIAN.BRAY.UK <<< mobile 07944 217 476

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http://www.cbc.ca/i/caffeine/syndicate/?mediaId=2685621754 AIR DUBAI CRASH MARCH 2016 Television 2-way with CBC Canada via 'upmarket' SKYPE

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Julian Bray Broadcaster Radio Podcasts Selection