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Julian Bray provides: Opinion, comment, forward thinking speculation on Travel, Cruise & Aviation: conflict zones, terrorist impact, drone (UAV) issues, safety (black boxes, emergencies), airline operations, aviation finance, political implications, and all forms of incident risk. Worked at board level with several airline and aviation groups, including Alitalia, British Island Airways, British Airways, Galileo , British Aerospace, Skyways, former CEO City firm Leadenhall Assoc. Founder CNS City News Service. Director NTN Television News (joint co. with ITV Wales TWW) Debretts People 2017 and in launch edition of PRWeek Black Book.

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Wednesday, 9 November 2016

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ELECT WILL BE THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ......PAUSE



DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENT ELECT WILL BE THE NEXT & 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.........PAUSE......


"We have to get together...time for us to come together as one united people," President elect Donald Trump.


Julian Bray Broadcaster & Aviation Security Expert writes: Ironically the largest trade stand at the 2016 World Travel Market, the huge Travel Industry trade show, currently on in London, is that of the United States of America.

For good entertainment and a touch of cruel rough reality  sport, we suggest you simply park yourself alongside the USA exhibit, watching many weeping, shell-shocked zombie-like Americans on the stand. SO why the upset? Here is the US Elections as seen by CNN concentrated into TWO MINUTES!

Most seemed to be frantically tapping their smart phones, and wailing on each others shoulders, in abject disbelief, that Mr Trump will soon be ...... President Trump....... and busy finishing of the wall (started by President Bush) between the USA and Mexico; also sucking US firms back into the USA industrial wastelands or risk a sudden 45% hike in import duty applied to Mexican and foreign (ie China) assembled products. 

Meanwhile pollsters are busy eating their words, having already safely banked substantial fees, as they all missed that President Elect Trump had with little resources behind him, financially less than half that of defeated Hillary Clinton, tapped into the white working class and Latino voters who he asserted had been overlooked by the previous privileged 'Establishment' upmarket political classes.  

But the outlook for the UK? Simply all future financial projections and budgets are now clearly null and void. The City is selling off US futures and world markets are generally volatile, likely to remain so until the new US administration appoints some officers and sets out its future policy in detail.....we are witnessing history being made.

If you care to look back at past blogs you'll find that we never ruled out Donald Trump as president, and indeed The Simpsons cartoon series about eight years [WRONG it was 16 years! Ed.]ago actually featured @realdonaldtrump (as his Twitter handle has it) in a nightmare dream sequence as the US President. Careful what you wish (and vote)for, but possibly more importantly what does this mean for Aviation security, and holiday and business air travel generally?

For the £Sterling it looks brighter as US stocks take an initial  battering, but recovering slightly and gold prices soar as international 'hot money' needs to fund a new home. 

Even today the conflict continues, even Lady Gaga has been demonstrating outside Trump Towers. This reality show is going to run and run.

The first thing we can establish is that our travel industry contacts are now heavily suggesting Canada is rapidly becoming the new USA holiday substitute.

American foreign policy is due for a massive shake up and the Mexican Peso has taken a hammering, Mexicans working in the USA, and remitting annually some 25 billion of dollars to families back in Mexico are fearful, that exchange controls will be introduced. Trump claims he wants to tear up World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules...

We expect recently announced aircraft contracts to be revised downwards or the period of delivery extended. Simply no one actually knows what is likely to happenor when.

As one wag quipped: "Last night I went to bed, and this morning woke up in 1938." Well perhaps slightly over the top, but this is totally unchartered political territory.

Grave anxieties over widespread USA visa clampdowns, immigration, unfettered gun control and general lawlessness are now being ratcheted up the US security maypole.

There is also the infamous No Fly List, more names under the Trump led administration may be added. Who knows?
You may recall the BBC TV programme Rip Off Britain featured a hapless British subject being denied entry to TURKEY as he was mistakenly included ON the USA produced No Fly List and used by the Turkish Government as part of their e-visa denied  That issue is still not resolved, the programme is still on the case and I am assisting...  

Simply no one knows what is likely to happen in the future as Mr Trump has been fairly vocal during the last eighteen months of his campaign,  but light on actual policy.

Simply nothing is off the table, or so far on it, but everything we are led to believe will in future favour the home market, says Mr Trump.

Clearly our Donald does not believe in climate change but claims he will rapidly regenerate infrastructure. New airports have also been mentioned. As air traffic over the next few years to the USA is likely to be tempered, it also calls into question the need, post Trump, for the Heathrow Airport extra runway, as clearly world trading and manufacturing patterns are to change, as the USA is set to get Americans working again wiping away the 'rust belts' city industrial wastelands, hulks that once were the backbone of USA heavy industry, now abandoned and communities disbursed. 

As the USA brings manufacturing, back from China, Mexico, the far east and Europe, plus pulling the US Military, and the US Air Force out of conflict zones (unless the NATO and UN partners fully pay up what they have contractually already agreed but failed to write the cheque......) Pulling in the debt, something that has been lacking over the last few years.

Personally I'm hoping that President Elect Trump will review his twitter history and realise that I tipped him off, about Turnberry Hotel and Golf course being  on the market and up for sale. Still waiting for my finders fee Donald!

"Republicans  and Democrats will have to come together as one united people," said the President Elect earlier this morning. Amen to that. Goodnight America, we love you....

     
JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581 Aerospace & Incident Management Expert, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com
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