EGYPTAIR UPDATES

JULIAN BRAY ++44(0)1733 345581

http://www.freelancedirectory.org/?name=Julian.Bray.aviation.comment

(ISDN BROADCAST LINK ++44(0)1733 345 020) all codecs G.722 & ATX Developed for use in ISDN remote broadcasting, G.722 is the original wideband speech codec to be standardized by the ITU-T. By sampling the speech signal at 16 kHz, G.722 more than doubles the encoded speech information, providing richer sound and better clarity than narrowband speech codecs. ( (ISDN2 BT BOX INSTALLED AT HOME: LIVE LINKS AVAILABLE AROUND THE CLOCK

Book slot on landline 01733 345581

Mob: 07944 217476 http://www.aviationcomment.com/ E&OE

http://www.freelancedirectory.org/?name=Julian.Bray.aviation.comment

COVERING TRANSPORTATION & ASSOCIATED POLITICAL ISSUES IN ALL FORMS plus RELATED INDUSTRIES including AEROSPACE, COMPUTER NETWORKS, RAIL, AVIATION, CRUISE, FERRIES, MERCHANT MARITIME, MILITARY, TRAVEL & HOLIDAY INDUSTRIES, CAA REPORTS, TRAVEL AGENTS, ATOL ISSUES, CIVIL & COMMERCIAL AVIATION. AIRSHOW ORGANISATION & LOGISTICS.

Contact numbers 01733 345581 OR Trusty Nokia Mobile: 07944 217 476

OFFICE: 01733 345581 and answerphone

email: julianbray@aol.com

BROADCAST ISDN2 LINE: 01733 345020 ISDN DIGITAL DIAL-UP only. [ BH VENDOR #10476453 add PE28xl ]

SKYPE: JULIAN.BRAY.UK (directly wired Ethernet connection on high speed Virginmedia cable)

GLENSOUND ISDN GSGC5 LOCATION UNITS FOR PROFESSIONAL DRY HIRE

http://www.freelancedirectory.org/?name=Julian.Bray.aviation.comment

Julian Bray provides: Opinion, comment, forward thinking speculation on Travel, Cruise & Aviation: conflict zones, terrorist impact, drone (UAV) issues, safety (black boxes, emergencies), airline operations, aviation finance, political implications, and all forms of incident risk. Worked at board level with several airline and aviation groups, including Alitalia, British Island Airways, British Airways, Galileo , British Aerospace, Skyways, former CEO City firm Leadenhall Assoc. Founder CNS City News Service. Director NTN Television News (joint co. with ITV Wales TWW) Debretts People 2017 and in launch edition of PRWeek Black Book.

Direct links to a selection of television and radio contributions can be found at foot of this page. Scroll down.

Join the conversation here or on Twitter at @aviationcomment

A retweet, comment or other publication by any means does not constitute an endorsement.

Quoted Content subject to creditline 'Julian Bray'

NUJ Life Member and Equity Full Member.

During career an active MCIPR, MMC & MBDS

Main UK telephone and prime contact number 01733 345581

Mob: 07944 217476

http://www.freelancedirectory.org/?name=Julian.Bray.aviation.comment

ISDN2 Loop Test (by arrangement) 01733 345020

Download the new CAA DRONECODE HERE :

http://dronesafe.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Dronecode.pdf







Thursday, 23 February 2017

'Newish' wide-bodied aircraft head for storage, and create a headache for aircraft leasing companies- and then there is 'BREXIT'



Could London Heathrow Runway expansion become the latest Brexit casualty?

Julian Bray writes: On a day when scientists are now saying we should eat ten not five pieces a fruit a day. Just who can you believe?  We are now nearly three months into 2017 and  finds manufacturers producing wide-body aircraft at historically high production rates.

This follows earlier periods of productive famine and other fiscal constraints fanned by poor economic conditions and corresponding delays in new-technology replacement programs. 

But consider the likes of Boeing and Airbus are now seeing reduced orders in a softening primary and weak secondary marketplaces. They are unable to fill production slots currently available before the production and rollout of next generation Airbus A350 and Boeing 777 aircraft.



To add to the complications, the quantity of wide-body aircraft in storage remains impossibly high, and the majority are younger ex-lease aircraft well below 20 years of age.

Also consider the growing numbers of current generation Airbus A330 and Boeing 777 aircraft being returned off lease in the next few years, some being returned early or swapped over for narrow body single aisle aircraft. A wide-body aircraft after or secondary market, which is now dominated by lessors, increasing unable to sell on or secondary lease their property.

The current twin-aisle wide-body market is also affected negatively by the increasing range and capacity of larger narrow-body aircraft such as the Airbus A321LR and soon by Boeing’s new 737 MAX family of aircraft which can easily operate point-to-point more than half of present wide-body routes

As a result airlines are increasingly hesitant to acquire larger wide-body aircraft as they can only be filled on densely travelled routes. It is also ironic that premium fares are still financially supporting economy price points.

The switch coincides with the general trend towards 'point to point operations' rather than hub connectivity. This trend does help our smaller regional airports, such as Stansted with operators such as Ryanair demanding a less than 25 minute turnaround for their aircraft and competitive landing and handling charges.  

But despite assurances from local airline management, all is not settled. Brexit is looming...  

With the outcome of Brexit negotiations still very uncertain and the UK Government, seemingly with very few seasoned negotiators facing highly experienced EU counterparts, the UK having over the last few years under the Cameron Government reduced the number of experienced civil servants - Post Brexit and still uncertain in terms of post EU access and negotiated agreements.

UK Airport managements should not be surprised if long standing established airport contracts with airlines are also rapidly renegotiated, as the new world order presents itself.  Moving house for any airline is so easy, you just immediately reroute your aircraft. 

Third-party operated ground handling resources are usually hired in, so no problem there either.  Both EasyJet and Ryanair have operating companies set up within Europe...

Financially Sterling has taken a hammering as brokers scrabble to go long on dollars (ie dump Sterling) its called the FOMO effect (FOMO - Fear Of Missing Out!)

Curiously Nomura bank (alone) is suggesting the Pound may nervously recover by the end of 2017.  


The first Airbus A380 end of lease returns will start during 2017. There has been very limited secondary market for the A380.

Given the aircraft’s no longer fashionable size, there are very few operators in current market conditions willing to risk using them. 

Reconfiguration costs are likely to be substantial for a traditional 3-class layout. Further damaging the secondary or after market, operators are now very thin on the ground and dominated by Emirates which accounts for nearly half of the aircraft in-service and on firm order backlog.

Observers suggest that such operator concentration is detrimental to asset liquidity and opportunities to place used aircraft.

Present first-tier operators have configured the aircraft with now outdated premium seating layouts effectively well below 500 seats. Airbus and lease company Amedeo, are hopeful that the A380 will enter service with low cost and charter carriers in configurations approaching 700 seats for long haul leisure markets, thus maximising the revenue potential of the aircraft.

Market participants are also optimistic that growing hub congestion (and the rush to point-to-point in some regions) will eventually influence operators to order or lease VLA aircraft such as the A380 and 747-8i.

Potential opportunities may also lie with operators such as International Airlines Group (IAG) - owners of the British Airways brand-  which sees second-hand A380s as an attractive proposition. 

Further complicating the outlook for a secondary market for the A380s is the lack of a freighter conversion program as well as possible derivative developments – fuselage stretch (-900), re-engined (A380neo) - being explored by the OEM.

Most affected in terms of value diminution are low gross weight early-build examples, which encountered wing component cracking issues requiring extensive repair work.

Fasten seat belts, the ride will be bumpy, for all of us...




JULIAN BRAY +44(0)1733 345581, Journalist & Broadcaster, Aviation Security & Airline Operations Analyst/expert, Travel / Maritime & Cruise Industry, NUJ, EQUITY, LIVE ISDN LINK, Broadcast ISDN COOBE ++44 (0)1733 345020 e&oe Old faithful NOKIA: 07944 217476 www.aviationcomment.com
Post a Comment
MEDIABLOGLINES: Key in your long URL to make tiny:

http://webguidePeople.com

JULIAN BRAY ++44(0)1733 345581 BROADCAST ISDN ++44(0)1733 345 020 all codecs

MOBILE: 07944 217476

AVIATION SECURITY EXPERT, AIRLINE OPERATIONS & NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES.

BROADCASTER, COLUMNIST & JOURNALIST. NUJ & FULL EQUITY MEMBER.

IMMEDIATE LIVE BROADCASTING VIA OWN ISDN COOBE, STUDIO & HIGH SPEED BROADBAND SKYPE

ISDN +44 (0) 1733 345020.

OFFICE +44 (0) 1733 345581

http://www.journalistdirectory.com/journalist/XLgEm/Julian-Bray




AVIATION & CRUISE, MARTIME INCIDENTS, SAFETY ISSUES, TRAVEL THREATS & PERILS, TERRORISM ISSUES, WORLD TRAVEL & INSURANCE COVER ISSUES, CONFLICT ZONES, LONDON RUNWAY, FEATURES & CORRESPONDENT RESEARCH PACKAGES. NATIONAL & LOCAL POLITICS, LAW & ORDER, LITIGATION SUPPORT.

"Adept at holding national and international politicians and business people to account, has a 'Marmite' but considered approach to politics and always well prepared" Iain Wilson

Julian Bray broadcasts and comments via ISDN +44 (0)1733 345020 (GLENSOUND C5 Dual Codec), VoIP and SKYPE >>> JULIAN.BRAY.UK <<< mobile 07944 217 476

BBC Contributor 10476453

LANDLINE number in the UK is +44(0) 1733 345581 Use this number to pre-brief or to book link.

TELEVSION AND RADIO LIVE INTERVIEWS AND CONTRIBUTIONS

RECENT FEEDS:

RUSSIA METROJET, GERMANWINGS, MH17 INCIDENTS and other RECENT TV NEWS & RADIO AUDIO FEEDS

LASER PENS BBC NEWS

Amelia Erhart Mystery BBC Wales

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08rg0nx

Julian Bray Radio Podcasts

http://talkradio.co.uk/julian-bray

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weCHZDsnpEI

https://audioboom.com/boos/5133360-easyjet-results-with-aviation-expert-julian-bray

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/360687-military-intel-mh17-include/ September 2016

#BorisJohnson 'right for all the wrong reasons' to dismiss Heathrow, says @JULIANBRAY - bit.ly/2cunT2Z pic.twitter.com/Jw3PwFOasm

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/russian-airline-rules-out-mechanical-failure-or/6907142

https://soundcloud.com/rttv/bray-7k9268?utm_source=soundcloud&utm_campaign=wtshare&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_content=https%3A%2F%2Fsoundcloud.com%2Frttv%2Fbray-7k9268

http://www.pri.org/stories/2012-01-16/why-modern-navigational-technology-didnt-prevent-costa-concordia-accident

https://twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/661125924432146432

http://rinf.com/alt-news/tag/julian-bray/

http://www.marketplace.org/2012/01/16/business/cruise-ship-industry-impacted-disaster

http://www.pri.org/stories/2012-01-16/why-modern-navigational-technology-didnt-prevent-costa-concordia-accident

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiKsLJxc6WA

https://soundcloud.com/julian-charles-braybray

https://soundcloud.com/julian-charles-bray

https://youtu.be/yiKsLJxc6WA?t=1m12s

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/03/24/idesk-bray-intv-germanwings-descent.cnn

https://soundcloud.com/rttv/airbus-co-pilot

http://www.itnsource.com/shotlist//ITN/2012/03/05/T05031202/http://www.itnsource.com/en/shotlist/ITN/2010/11/04/T04111005/#videoPopUpDiv

https://audioboom.com/boos/3579946-why-has-the-low-cost-airline-industry-been-thriving-morningmoney

http://talkradio.co.uk/news/airport-expansion-boris-johnson-right-all-wrong-reasons-dismiss-heathrow-1609164227

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/royalbaby/russian-passenger-jet-crashes-in-central-sinai/vp-BBmEGu9

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/10/31/russian-passenger-jet-plane-crashed.cnn

https://audioboom.com/boos/3289201-billybambrough-brings-us-the-latest-from-the-paris-air-show-morningmoney

http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1510/31/cnr.22.html

https://soundcloud.com/rttv/bray-7k9268?utm_source=soundcloud&utm_campaign=wtshare&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_content=https%3A%2F%2Fsoundcloud.com%2Frttv%2Fbray-7k9268

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/323287-su24-fighter-russia-turkey-syria/ Scroll down final VT

https://audioboom.com/boos/3918847-a-new-aviation-strategy-julianbray-oliver__clark-talk-on-the-europeancommission-s-airline-announcement

https://audioboom.com/boos/3933313-julianbray-talks-on-the-airport-expansion-delay-the-heathrow-bid-is-frankly-illegal

https://audioboom.com/boos/4241311-a-closer-look-at-the-deal-to-buy-london-cityairport-with-aerospace-specialist-julianbray


http://www.cbc.ca/i/caffeine/syndicate/?mediaId=2685621754 AIR DUBAI CRASH MARCH 2016 Television 2-way with CBC Canada via 'upmarket' SKYPE

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/video/plane-circled-airport-bad-weather-110053170.html AIR DUBAI CRASH 19/03/2016 Julian Bray first reaction

https://audioboom.com/boos/4368310-is-the-aerospace-sector-in-trouble-julian-bray-discusses-as-boeing-plans-to-cut-thousands-of-jobs

Julian Bray Broadcaster Radio Podcasts Selection